Big Boys Hobbies

. ** My lost Gold Ring Theory **

meggie

meggie

Elite Member
Joined
May 14, 2009
Messages
985
Location
Queensland Australia
Say 12 gold rings are lost at a single beach each year (conservative estimate)that would amount to 1200 rings over the past 100 years.
Multiply that by say 10 beaches ,that's jumped now to 12000 rings .. What if it was double that amount or even more?

My beaches where I live in Australia are mainly small,about half a mile long on average .. so if your beaches stretch for many miles adjust my theory to say units of 10 or more street blocks.
Of course many would be lost either beyond reach or just too deep to detect.
Others would be detectable especially after big storms and huge seas or even recent fresh drops.

My best month was in March 2013, 15 gold rings .. total for that year was 76.
I might add that I put in over 500 beach hours (126 visits) as well that year.

Just my view .. think about it!
 

Attachments

  • IMG_0103abc.jpg
    IMG_0103abc.jpg
    73.8 KB · Views: 795
I think that number has dropped considerably in recent years.. And not just because of price.
More and more beachgoers are aware of metal detectors and know they find stuff. Hence, more caution is taken. I've seen guys looking for fresh drops while the people are still there swimming.
20 or 30 years ago 10 rings.. now maybe 3
 
Steve said:
I think that number has dropped considerably in recent years.. And not just because of price.
More and more beachgoers are aware of metal detectors and know they find stuff. Hence, more caution is taken. I've seen guys looking for fresh drops while the people are still there swimming.
20 or 30 years ago 10 rings.. now maybe 3
Click to expand...

I'm not sure if people take more care of their jewellery nowadays than let's say 25 years ago, but I doubt anyone's mindset is "I'm going to be more cautious with my rings because I don't want a detectorist to find my stuff" If you ask me, that'd be a stupid reason to look after your belongings! :lol: If people are more cautious nowadays, then I'd say it's because they value their jewellery, and they don't want to lose it (duh), and not because they don't want someone else to find it, because after all, there are ring finding services available nowadays, which didn't exist 100 years ago.
 
meggie said:
My best month was in March 2013, 15 gold rings .. total for that year was 76.
I might add that I put in over 500 beach hours (126 visits) as well that year.

Just my view .. think about it!
Click to expand...
That's a Great Year!!

As far as the numbers, I have come to the conclusion there are thousands out there and the numbers do grow, maybe not like before but they do still climb.

For the beach's I hunt, all have been closed for at least 50 years or longer. All were hammered years ago and still, with hard work treasures can be found.
 
X-Terra70 said:
I'm not sure if people take more care of their jewellery nowadays than let's say 25 years ago, but I doubt anyone's mindset is "I'm going to be more cautious with my rings because I don't want a detectorist to find my stuff" If you ask me, that'd be a stupid reason to look after your belongings! :lol: If people are more cautious nowadays, then I'd say it's because they value their jewellery, and they don't want to lose it (duh), and not because they don't want someone else to find it, because after all, there are ring finding services available nowadays, which didn't exist 100 years ago.
Click to expand...


I think what the OP was trying to get across is that people now realize, because they see and hear about detectors finds, are more cognizant of the fact that many people lose their stuff at the beach. They just don't want to be one of them.
 
meggie said:
Say 12 gold rings are lost at a single beach each year (conservative estimate)that would amount to 1200 rings over the past 100 years.
Multiply that by say 10 beaches ,that's jumped now to 12000 rings .. What if it was double that amount or even more?
Click to expand...

Point - Counterpoint...

Lets say each beach has 5 locals that hunt routinely. There are 10 hunters within an hour drive and 25 hunters that visit on vacation.

PROBABILITY FORMULA:
(40 Hunters) ~ (365 days) ~ (12 rings annually) = probability is .001 or 1:1,000 of finding one ring on any given day

You better have the best equipment, know how to use it, and be there 365!
 

Attachments

  • mdclub.jpg
    mdclub.jpg
    74.2 KB · Views: 665
Last edited:
dirtydog said:
You make me want to go hunting.
Click to expand...

PROBABILITY FORMULA:
(40 Hunters) ~ (365 days) ~ (12 rings annually) = probability is .001 or 1:1,000 of finding one ring on any given day
D/D, you still want to hunt? lol
 
Last edited:
I enjoy these kind of mental exercises..mostly for an excuse for the insanity it leads to...but also for figuring odds and hunting accordingly....Some long time detectorists have NEVER found a gold ring..Thats not to say they never had a coil over one, just never found it...Waterbabies hunt for gold...Dirt parkies hunt for silver, some are able to mix and match the disciplines, learn and apply skills from one over into the other for great success...

I would posit that the guys that go subsurface with tanks or Hookah outperform.....Waders and dirt hunters are competing against all detectorists, no matter what gear they swing...The 'mouth breathers' have the right strategy...Lord what a picture that is Meggie!
 
X-Terra70 said:
I'm not sure if people take more care of their jewellery nowadays than let's say 25 years ago, but I doubt anyone's mindset is "I'm going to be more cautious with my rings because I don't want a detectorist to find my stuff" If you ask me, that'd be a stupid reason to look after your belongings! :lol: If people are more cautious nowadays, then I'd say it's because they value their jewellery, and they don't want to lose it (duh), and not because they don't want someone else to find it, because after all, there are ring finding services available nowadays, which didn't exist 100 years ago.
Click to expand...
The mindset will be different if they actually see someone detecting nearby. That person might of had a 0.00001% chance of losing a gold ring. After seeing the guy with the detector the chance of losing that ring on that day is now 0.000000001%.
 
I have always guessed maybe one person in 10,000 might loose and ring, and out of ten lost rings the breakdown would be 5 junk, four silver and maybe one gold where I am. So basically I might need 100,000 visitors to get one gold ring lost, which certainly does not I am going to find it either :lol::lol::lol:
Of course this is all a big guess...
 
Let's say the posit of 12 rings is accurate, I don't believe that accurately translates to 12 GOLD rings. More and more people today are wearing junk jewelry and "alternate" wedding bands of titanium, tungsten, stainless, etc.

There used to be a ration of silver to gold finds. Now days it seems to be a ratio of junk to either silver or gold. I dont think I have ever been to a beach that I didnt see at least another hunter there during my time. Many times they are swinging junk machines for fresh drops in the dry sand, but they are still competition.

dry sand is a competition against other hunters and trash. The surf is a competition against mother nature to reveal what has been buried.
 
I see things a bit differently.

first off, the # of people going to the beaches continues to climb... And the accidental loss rate is also probably stable, if not HIGHER than before for people wearing jewelry today, vs. 50 years ago. Reasons why:
1) More people slather copious amounts of sunscreen on, today, than they did in the 1960s-70s.
2) People wear larger/heavier bands today than they did 50 years ago.

BUT... couple that with the recent massive spike in gold, and the # of gold rings is actually fewer on an individual (lots more tungsten, silver, titaniums, etc...)

Bottom line is that I think there's MORE gold being dropped than ever before, but the # of detectorists is increasing at a faster rate than the # of people losing stuff, so the average find rate is going DOWN.

For example, I fully intend to bring my detector to South Beach Miami in March, before my cruise. I even booked a hotel ON the beach, just for this purpose. Do I think I have a shot at finding a gold "something"? Better than if I left it at home. And we all know it only takes 1 Rolex to pay for a trip. LOL

So... I will bring my detector, have a blast doing it, and probably come home with $2 worth of change (I don't have strong expectations), but I've gotten lucky before, and know that people who are out swinging the coil are more likely to find stuff than people who wish they were out swinging the coil.

I would also think 99% of all finds go unreported by detectorists. Most detectorists I know don't frequent forums, and they're very quiet/private about their finds (even with other detectorists).

Given the volume of gold that I find on the DIRT... I'm confident the beaches are loaded with the stuff and it gets taken out so fast that very little gets seen by forum members. Too many people reporting things like, 'I saw 5 detectorists out last night in a 200 yard area,' or 'that guy is spreading holed pennies to prevent other detectorists from searching his favorite area.' :laughing:

The stuggle is real... but in the end, the only way to find it is to get your coil over it.
 
Jason in Enid said:
Let's say the posit of 12 rings is accurate, I don't believe that accurately translates to 12 GOLD rings. More and more people today are wearing junk jewelry and "alternate" wedding bands of titanium, tungsten, stainless, etc.
Click to expand...

No way that's accurate... it's got to be much higher than that on US beaches (if there's any stretch to it, anyway.)

My reasoning is that I consistently find 1-2 gold rings PER major park I hunt EACH YEAR on the land... And that's just in a community with 80,000 people in it. These are yearly drops, and my favorite parks all yield a good 6-8 rings total per year (not all gold, of course), and those are just the hot spots. We probably see close to 200,000 visitors each year, and that's a land park with lots of action, with rarely more than 1000 people at the park in a day (on game days, we'll see that, otherwise, it's just a couple hundred).

Take a beach, like Miami beach, and wave action, and add 5-8 million people visiting the sand and the amount of jewelry losses becomes staggering. 12 golds isn't out of the question... it's probably low by about 30X.. Some of which, may not be found for YEARS, if ever.

Here's some more reasoning...
1) Good beach hunters are pulling 80+ gold rings a year.
2) Let's just say every one of the 200 regular local hunters to these beaches finds just 2 golds a year, and you get 400 gold rings total (that's not great hunting for a year, btw...but it's very plausible).

This is why I think it's not only a low estimate (12 rings a year), I think it's staggeringly low.

In a local soccerfield, I typically find 1-3 gold rings a YEAR in that one field that has just 12 soccerfields of various sizes (consistently for 3 years running, now, totaled up to 5 so far in just less than 3 years). And I know some other rings are being sniped by other detectorists before I get there (there's cut marks, and occasionally I meet them!). So, if there's that much being lost on land... there's got to be gobs of them lost on the beaches, where the likelihood of losing them is much higher.

Skippy
 
meggie said:
.... over the past 100 years....
Click to expand...

Not sure about Australia, but your theory fails to take into account that .... prior to the 1950s , people wore a lot less jewelry. Often time just a wedding ring at best (and only then-so put on for "hamming for the camera"). And sometimes those "wedding rings" 100 yrs. ago were just silver, ... or even copper (for common man laborers types).

CONTRAST TO NOW where even little kids wear jewelry (nose rings, earings, bracelets, toe-rings, belly-button rings, tongue piercings, blah blah blah blah).

So your theory is not working, if you take cultural jewelry wearing statistics into account.

I have seen this play out where there's been storm erosion where our silver and old coin count goes up up up. Yet on those days, the gold ring count goes down down down. CONTRAST to if the erosion has exposed (and made thick target counts) of modern clad, is THEN when the gold ring counts are good. Reason ? : Demographics of eras of people's habits of wearing jewelry.

There has been people who tried to take issue with this statistic, by pointing to turn-of-century photos, of people who ... were indeed wearing jewelry for photos. But this is just staged, where they're wearing their "Sunday best". But if you look at CANDID photos of people at 100 yrs. ago: No, no jewelry whatsoever, for the most part.

This is why ghost-town hunters (using zero disc. except iron) RARELY find gold rings.
 
There are a lot of variables to add to your formula as well. How about the Ring Recovery Services such as Ring Finders or LostMyStuff.net? They figure into that ring recovery rate as well. Lately I've found a couple of rings with serial numbers in them. Those I return. I don't need the $$ and the stories I've gotten for returns far out weigh keeping the ring(s). Although I will admit most rings I do find are plain with no inscription or identification.

How crowded the area is and how often that beach is used by tourists and locals alike. I like the idea you've put forth but there's more to the picture as well. I've clearly noticed a drop in finds when the economy went down. Esp. if you're in an area frequented by tourists. Lots of things effect ring finding including the skill of the hunter which in my opinion is a BIGGIE. Enjoy and GL and HH
 
Numil said:
There are a lot of variables to add to your formula as well. How about the Ring Recovery Services such as Ring Finders or LostMyStuff.net? They figure into that ring recovery rate as well. Lately I've found a couple of rings with serial numbers in them. Those I return. I don't need the $$ and the stories I've gotten for returns far out weigh keeping the ring(s). Although I will admit most rings I do find are plain with no inscription or identification.

How crowded the area is and how often that beach is used by tourists and locals alike. I like the idea you've put forth but there's more to the picture as well. I've clearly noticed a drop in finds when the economy went down. Esp. if you're in an area frequented by tourists. Lots of things effect ring finding including the skill of the hunter which in my opinion is a BIGGIE. Enjoy and GL and HH
Click to expand...

+1 on this Numil, there is a cottage industry in the tourist areas of detectorists finding "lost" items for "customers". When I lived in Hawaii there was a lot of that going on, and even when I found items for "customers" they were typically incredulous that I found it and not very thankful.....back on the mainland it was a different story. Just my experience.

HH
 
My wife says all rings are on the beach because they've been thrown there by jilted / jealous girlfriends, lovers, wives etc. She's not the only female to have said that to me, who am I to argue :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

yandosan
Nevis Island
Replies
0
Views
97
yandosan
yandosan
LongJohnSilver1
Gold price
2
Replies
34
Views
659
LongJohnSilver1
LongJohnSilver1
L
Here is a Little Strange Ring for Ya
Replies
14
Views
394
KingTotsalot
KingTotsalot
LongJohnSilver1
Honk
2
Replies
21
Views
404
GroundSweeper
GroundSweeper
G
You tube rant
2 3
Replies
40
Views
1K
TampaBayBrad
T
Back
Top Bottom